“Eli Manning is a first-ballot Hall of Famer!”
No.
He is not.
On Wednesday, the Pro Football Hall of Fame released its list of the 25 modern era semifinalists for the class of 2025. I recently led a group of Hall analysts and historians in building our own list of 50, published at Hall voter Clark Judge’s site Talk of Fame, and Eli did not make our list. I was not surprised to see him in the actual Top 50 stage, and I am disappointed but not surprised to see him in the semifinals.
This isn’t a knock on Eli. My disappointment comes from two factors. First, the selection committee prioritizing newly eligible players over players running out of eligibility. Second, I’m disappointed in the Eli first-ballot talk because anyone elected first-ballot is the elite of the elite of the elite, which he is not.
That finalist round of 15 is where the Hall journey really starts, because that’s when voters actually discuss and argue cases. For some, they didn’t even get that far.
First-ballot semifinalists took the place of deserving candidates from the 1990s
Eli is one of six first-ballot semifinalists this year, while the voters sent three 1990s All-Decade members to the senior pool this year by passing them over without once discussing their cases in the final 15:
- Cornelius Bennett, two-time UPI AFC Defensive Player of the Year
- Ben Coates, who most people would probably pick as the number 2 tight end of the 1990s
- Neil Smith, the 1993 sack champ whose defection from Kansas City to Denver helped put the Broncos over the top en route to two championships
Eli Manning doesn’t belong as a first-ballot Hall of Famer
Since 1990, the Hall has elected every modern-era QB first-ballot except for one. Eli still does not belong in that group. Those first-ballot QBs are Dan Fouts, Joe Montana, Jim Kelly, John Elway, Dan Marino, Steve Young, Troy Aikman, Warren Moon, Brett Favre and Peyton Manning. The other modern-era QB in the Hall since 1990 is Kurt Warner, elected on the third ballot.
This trend might change over the next decade, but we know that Drew Brees, Tom Brady and eventually Aaron Rodgers will be first-ballot Hall of Famers. Patrick Mahomes could retire today and be a first-ballot QB. That’s 15 quarterbacks. I added Eli to that group and evaluated them in 34 quarterback categories, mostly individual, some team. Eli was the only one not in the top 3 in this group in any of the 34 categories, including the ones where his resume stands out: Super Bowl rings and Super Bowl MVPs.
So no, Eli is not a typical first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback. But none of those 15 quarterbacks are on the ballot with him this year, nor is Philip Rivers (eligible 2026), Cam Newton and Ben Roethlisberger (2027) or Matt Ryan (2028). Smooth sailing right?
Again, that’s a no. As Jets representative voter and Giants supporter Gary Myers noted in February on the SB Nation’s Giants YouTube show with Big Blue View: “I’m anticipating the most intense debate we’ve ever had. This really appears to be a divisive issue.”
Myers has made his view known: he thinks Eli belongs in on the first ballot. He and I have debated Eli’s candidacy; at one point on Twitter, Myers laid out his philosophy as a voter.
“First ballot is overrated in my opinion,” he wrote. “When I vote it’s based on who the five more worthy candidates are that year. It has nothing to do with how many years they are on the ballot.”
We disagree about the importance of years on the ballot, but looking at Myers’s position, it’s a reasonable stance: vote for the best five. The problem is that this year, Eli is not in the top five. I don’t even think he is in the top 15, which is the number of finalist slots.
Who should be a Hall of Fame finalist before Eli Manning?
Using Gary Myers’s framing that remaining eligibility does not matter and you vote for the best resumes, Eli should not be among the 15 finalists that voters debate in their annual meeting.
Who has a better resume? I think there are 17 semifinalists who belong in Canton before him. Let’s start with these nine, all of whom are either past finalists or in their first year of eligibility (ALL CAPS):
- Antonio Gates — 8-time Pro Bowl, three-time AP first-team All-Pro (AP1), All-Decade, No. 7 in career receiving TDs and first among tight ends
- LUKE KUECHLY — 7-time Pro Bowl, 5-time AP1, 2013 Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY), All-Decade
- EARL THOMAS — 7-time Pro Bowl, 3-time AP1, All-Decade
- MARSHAL YANDA — 8-time Pro Bowl, 2-time AP1, All-Decade
- Jahri Evans — 6-time Pro Bowl, 4-time AP1, All-Decade
- Torry Holt — 7-time Pro Bowl, 1-time AP1, 2-time receiving yards champ, All-Decade
- Jared Allen — 5-time Pro Bowl, 4-time AP1, 2-time sack champ, 2011 Sporting News DPOY
- TERRELL SUGGS — 7-time Pro Bowl, 1-time AP1, 2011 AP DPOY, 2011 PFWA DPOY
- Reggie Wayne — 6-time Pro Bowl, 1-time AP1, 1-time receiving yards champ
That’s nine players who clearly have a better resume than Eli, starting with Gates, who was nearly a first-ballot inductee last year. Seven of those nine players peaked as elite at their positions, some as the undisputed best. Voters are split on Holt and Wayne; I’m a Holt guy, who carved out an AP1 when Moss, T.O. and Marvin were at their best. He also led the NFL in receiving yards twice. Wayne did it once, and also had an AP1.
Obviously wide receivers have two All-Pro first team slots to a QB’s one, but Eli had zero All-Pro selections: not first team, not second team, not all-conference. He was voted to just two Pro Bowls in his 16 seasons and was named as a replacement player for two more Pro Bowls. While the top line of Eli’s resume are his two game-winning drives in two Super Bowls, six of the above nine have rings, another two started a Super Bowl and lost, and the last one is Gates, one of the greatest tight ends in NFL history.
What other 2025 semifinalists were more decorated than Eli? Let’s start with one more player who is in his first year of eligibility:
- Adam Vinatieri — 3-time Pro Bowl, 3-time AP1, 3-time FG% champ, NFL’s all-time leading scorer, All-Decade
Vinatieri is a weird one of course, because kickers just don’t get as many accolades as quarterbacks. Only one per year gets named to the Pro Bowl, and kickers rarely miss the Pro Bowl, meaning there are fewer replacement Pro Bowlers, something Eli got twice. Like QBs, there is only one AP1 kicker per year; Vinatieri got it three times. Even if Vinatieri retired after 16 seasons like Eli did, he still would have a 2-0 lead on AP1 selections.
Among the other returning 2024 finalists, these four are all also more decorated than Eli:
- Eric Allen — 6-time Pro Bowl, 1-time AP1, 1993 UPI NFC DPOY
- Darren Woodson — 5-time Pro Bowl, 3-time AP1
- Willie Anderson — 4-time Pro Bowl, 3-time AP1
- Rodney Harrison — 2-time Pro Bowl, 2-time AP1
Finally, three semifinalists getting late in their eligibility deserve a debate:
- Richmond Webb — 7-time Pro Bowl, 2-time AP1, 2-time NFLPA AFC Offensive Lineman of the Year (1993, 1994)
- Steve Wisniewski — 8-time Pro Bowl, 2-time AP1, 6-time AP2, 1991 NFLPA AFC Offensive Lineman of the Year
- Ricky Watters — 5-time Pro Bowl, 1-time scrimmage yards champ, top 10 in scrimmage yards in eight of his 10 seasons, Super Bowl-record three touchdowns
Depending on how much you value quarterbacks over, say, kickers or offensive linemen, you might not put each of these 17 players above Eli Manning for Hall induction in 2025. But I think most people who evaluated the semifinalist list based on Gary Myers’s rule of electing the top five eligible would not put Eli Manning in the class of 2025. I think many people would even leave him out of the top 15.
Obviously there’s a top bar of Hall of Famer, the guys we call the “Stand up, Sit down” players, because all the presenter has to do is stand up, say the player’s name and sit down and he gets elected. After that, you can call someone “elite,” which can be applied in different ways by different people. But just to put a number on it, let’s say “elite” players make the Pro Bowl 50% of their career, or make All-Pro 40% of their career, or make first-team All-Pro 30% of their career. The semifinalist list has:
- 50% Pro Bowl: 9 players (Kuechly, Thomas, Holt, Wisniewski, Yanda, Webb, Evans, Gates, Watters)
- 40% All-Pro: 5 players (Kuechly, Wisniewski, Yanda, Thomas, Evans)
- 30% All-Pro 1st team: 4 players (Kuechly, Evans, J. Allen, Thomas)
The guys on all three lists: Luke Kuechly, Earl Thomas, Jahri Evans. The guys on the Pro Bowl list plus one All-Pro list: Steve Wisniewski, Marshal Yanda. Again, that’s five players right there, plus Gates is six. At most, five of the final 25 will get elected this year, and it could be as low as three.
Eli’s main PFHOF calling card is his two championships. Of the 17 players, Vinatieri has four rings, Woodson has three, and two more players have two.
As for the six semifinalists I left off the above list, I imagine that some people would argue a few of them belong in Canton before Eli:
- Fred Taylor — 2024 finalist, 1-time Pro Bowl, 1-time AP2
- James Harrison — His 2008 is one of the single greatest seasons in NFL history, winning DPOY and a ring while returning a pick-six 100 yards in SB XLIII
- Steve Smith — 5-time Pro Bowl, 2-time AP1, 2005 receiving triple crown
- Robert Mathis — 5-time Pro Bowl, 1-time AP1, 1-time champ, 1-time sack champ, career leader in forced fumbles
- Vince Wilfork — 5-time Pro Bowl, 1-time AP1, 3-time AP2, 2-time champ
- Hines Ward — 4-time Pro Bowl, 3-time AP2, 2-time champ, 3-time SB, SB MVP
- Anquan Boldin — 3-time Pro Bowl, 1-time champ, 2-time SB
Giants fans should be on board with passing over Eli Manning for the Hall of Fame this year
If you’re a Giants fan, this probably seems harsh to Eli. But the common approach to voting — prioritizing new players and skill position players — is one of the reasons that, say, Carl Banks was never a finalist. He’s now adrift in the senior pool.
In the modern pool, 2025 is the 5th year of eligibility for Justin Tuck, another two-time Giants champ who, unlike Eli, did receive All-Pro selections. Tuck also had fantastic Super Bowls, with two sacks and a forced fumble in XLII and two sacks in XLVI. Tuck has never been discussed.
This is Tiki Barber’s 14th year of eligibility. He made the semis for the first time ever last year and has not been a finalist. Voters left him out of the semis this year. Let’s say Eli makes the finals this year but does not get in. 2026 has two first-ballot locks in Drew Brees and Larry Fitzgerald. 2027 brings Rob Gronkowski and Adrian Peterson. 2028 brings Tom Brady and J.J. Watt. Add Rivers and Roethlisberger and Eli could easily end up taking up a finalist slot for four years and could enter 2029 still on the ballot along with Rivers, Roethlisberger, Ryan and (admittedly outsider) Cam Newton. All of that could keep Tiki out of the finals until he has just two years remaining, if he gets to the finals at all.
I’m not saying Tuck or Tiki should get into Canton, nor am I saying they shouldn’t. Hell, I know that Tiki has his share of Giants fan detractors. All I’m saying is that they earned their turn in the room as finalists, the only time that voters formally discuss players. So did Richmond Webb. So did Steve Wisniewski. So do two players bizarrely missing from semis, who have never been semifinalists, Kevin Williams and Logan Mankins. Williams was AP1 more times than Eli was a Pro Bowler.
Unlike all of them and many others, Eli Manning is not in danger of being forgotten. His accomplishments will resonate as long as the NFL exists, and that resonance might make his case feel like a breakaway slam dunk in 10-15 years rather than a contested three-pointer this year. He was also a great teammate and great leader who seems like a good person. He won the 2016 Walter Payton Man of the Year. If he gets in one day, I’ll tip my cap. There is no doubt that his day in the room will come.
For the sake of the process — and even his fellow Giants — I hope voters push that day to at least next year.
Jack M Silverstein is Chicago’s sports historian, a Pro Football Hall of Fame analyst, a jury member in PFHOF voter Clark Judge’s “Judge & Jury” series, Bears historian of Windy City Gridiron and author of “Why We Root: Mad Obsessions of a Chicago Sports Fan.” Say hey at @readjack.
