It’s important to be skeptical of small sample sizes early in a new NBA season. The league’s eternal 82-game grind leaves plenty of time to make up ground in the standings, or waste a hot start.
At the same time, trends start stabilizing around the 20-game mark of the season, or about a quarter of the way through the schedule. The NBA is rapidly approaching that benchmark, and there are a few teams that should be feeling good about how their seasons are going this year.
Defining success in the NBA all comes back to expectations. Here are five teams who are better than expected so far this season.
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs are 15-0. The only team in NBA history to get off to a better start is the 73-win Warriors.
There was optimism that new head coach Kenny Atkinson could get Cleveland to the next level entering the season. Still, few people put the Cavs in the East’s in circle of contenders (Celtics, Knicks, 76ers, Bucks), preferring to instead lump them in with the Pacers and Magic in the conference’s second tier. Atkinson has figured out a way to get the Cavs’ core four players playing complementary basketball with an emphasis on spacing and cutting that wasn’t there before.
The Cavs have so much size with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley in the middle, and so much playmaking with Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell both playing at an All-Star level. The depth is good enough to mix and match lineups around them. Ty Jerome is emerging as one of the league’s best reserves, while Dean Wade provides front court shooting, Isaac Okoro adds point of attack defense, and Caris LeVert sprinkles in more scoring punch. The East still runs through the Celtics, but the Cavs are clearly their biggest threat to start the season.
Detroit Pistons
There was nowhere to go but up for the Pistons after the franchise devolved into league-wide doormats under former braintrust Monty Williams and Troy Weaver. Last season’s 14-win campaign was particularly pathetic. With Trajan Langdon installed at GM and JB Bickerstaff taking over as head coach, the Pistons are already halfway to last season’s win total less than a month into this season, and there’s real optimism that this is only the start of their rise.
The young players Detroit drafted early in the lottery are finally coming into their own. Cade Cunningham is still struggling with his turnovers and scoring efficiency, but he’s also one of only four players in the league currently averaging at least 23 points and eight assists. Jaden Ivey is out of Williams’ dog house, and has the full trust of Bickerstaff, who is unleashing his rim attacking prowess and transition scoring. 21-year-old center Jalen Duren is shooting literally 80 percent from the field. The doomed two-big lineups of the Williams era have given way to Bickerstaff almost always having one elite shooter on the floor in Tim Hardaway Jr. and Malik Beasley, who have combined to shoot 41.7 percent from three-point range entering the week.
The real reason the Pistons are better this year is the defense. After finishing No. 28 in defensive efficiency last season, Detroit is now up to No. 6 on that end. The Pistons are cleaning the defensive glass (No. 4 in defensive rebound rate), and they’re doing a better job closing out on shooters. Bickerstaff’s history of building good defenses in Cleveland is carrying over, and it’s giving the offense more margin for error to work things out. The Pistons aren’t exactly a juggernaut yet (can the guards please find Duren for more easy finishes?), but they’re at least playing respectable basketball, which is more than most Eastern Conference teams can say right now.
Los Angeles Lakers
Only five teams have more wins than the Lakers entering the week thanks to the team’s 9-4 start. At the same time, the team is only No. 12 in net-rating/point differential. LA has been punching above its weight so far in part because it’s been nails in close games (a 4-2 clutch record with a net-rating of +19.1), but it could be sustainable as long as the team’s veteran stars remain healthy.
The Lakers are always among the league leaders in free throws with LeBron James and Anthony Davis, and that again remains the case this year. This team is knocking down 80 percent of their freebies, No. 7 in the league, to help aid their top-5 offense. Davis is playing at an MVP level right now, putting up the best scoring production of his career while also holding the defense together. New head coach JJ Redick has given AD more reps with the ball in his hands, and he’s been unstoppable attacking in close while also getting a boost from improved three-point shooting. With Rui Hachimura playing more minutes and shooting well at the four, the Lakers finally have proper spacing around Davis, and it’s producing efficient offense.
The Lakers perimeter defense is still suspect. They could really use another big man. As rookie Dalton Knecht becomes a bigger part of the rotation, the Lakers’ offensive punch should go up, but their defense will be even shakier. Establishing a sound offensive identity is the bigger priority for Redick, because he can always fall back on Davis’ brilliance protecting the paint when the games really start to count. The Lakers feel like the biggest paper tiger of this group based on the metrics, but the offense just might be good enough to keep them going.
Houston Rockets
The Rockets jumped from 22 wins to 41 wins in their first season under Ime Udoka a year ago, and appear to be taking another step in their development to begin this season. Houston is off to a 10-4 (ed note: now 10-5) start thanks to its fantastic depth, unrelenting athleticism, and ferocious defense. The Rockets enter the week third in defensive efficiency and fifth in net-rating. It won’t be easy to keep it up in the hellacious Western Conference, but the Rockets are quickly emerging as one of the NBA’s most fascinating teams in the run up to the trade deadline.
The Rockets lack an elite rim protector with Alperen Sengun in the middle, but there’s so much length and explosiveness around him that the defense is still thriving. Tari Eason and Amen Thompson are becoming a game-changing duo off the bench, supplying Udoka with two monster athletes who force takeaways and finish plays in transition. Houston does a great job getting into the gaps for deflections (sixth in total deflections) and challenging shots at the rim with multiple defenders. The Rockets have been able to unleash their young players on the offensive glass without it hurting their transition defense.
The offense can make up for its lack of shooting by being No. 2 in the league in offensive rebound percentage. Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green, and Jabari Smith Jr. are each shooting under 33 percent from three, but have the talent and pedigree to hit shots. Reed Sheppard could also help grease the offense with his shooting and ball movement, but to this point Udoka has been hesitant to put the No. 3 overall pick on the floor for meaningful minutes. Houston does a great job avoiding turnovers for a team that ranks No. 7 in transition frequency so far. There are already vague rumors about trading for Kevin Durant or Giannis Antetokounmpo around the franchise. Houston has so many good young players that it can’t even find minutes for Cam Whitmore right now. A consolidation trade could be looming, but there’s already so much to like about what the Rockets are doing this year.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors lost Klay Thompson over the offseason, but the way they replaced him has Golden State again looking like a contender in the Western Conference. The Warriors dynasty was always synonymous with shooting, but their depth and defense were always nearly as important. Both factors have returned in a big way this year. Steve Kerr is playing the NBA’s biggest rotation with 11 players taking the floor in every game so far. As it’s happened, a defense that ranked No. 15 last year has risen to No. 4.
Stephen Curry remains brilliant, but the Warriors know they can’t rely on him to carry the team every possession as he nears his 37th birthday in March. Golden State signed three players to replace Thompson over the summer in Buddy Hield. Kyle Anderson, and De’Anthony Melton, and each of them has fit like a glove when they’ve been healthy so far. Hield has a legitimate claim to both Most Improved Player and Sixth Man of the Year, scoring nearly a point per minute as Golden State has insulated him defensively. All of the new pieces seem to grasp the quick decision-making that’s so crucial to Steve Kerr’s system. Having Curry and Green to quarterback the offense and defense respectively is making life so much easier for the new pieces entering the rotation.
The Warriors enter the week as the only team currently top-5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The West is a gauntlet, and the Warriors’ return to relevance is only making it scarier.
