A draft bombshell was dropped in Indianapolis shortly before midnight on Wednesday. Abdul Carter, Penn State pass rusher and presumptive No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft is suffering from a stress fracture in his foot. In the grand scheme of things it’s a fairly minor issue, but when put under the draft microscope it might just be enough to completely shake up the draft.
Carter’s name has been penciled in at No. 1 ever since the Titans made it clear that it was unlikely they’d take a quarterback at the top of the draft, instead looking for a “generational talent.” In this class there are two player who fit the bill: Abdul Carter and Travis Hunter — with the former being a better fit at a position of greater need for Tennessee.
Questions now linger about the Titans resolve with that top pick in the wake of this injury news. Carter’s agent, Drew Rosenhaus, is doing his job well — downplaying the severity of the injury and insisting he’ll still be the No. 1 pick.
Doctors told Penn St. DE and projected No. 1 pick Abdul Carter that, after further scans on his right foot, surgery is not advisable. Carter will work out at his March 28 pro day at Penn State.
“I couldn’t be more confident that this will be a non-factor where he’s drafted,”… pic.twitter.com/pHTkIzDcWM
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 27, 2025
Obviously we need to take Rosenhaus’ word with a grain of salt. He has a vested interest in ensuring his client is still the No. 1 pick, and most importantly: Rosenhaus isn’t a doctor. All it takes is the Titans’ medical team to raise the slightest concern about the foot injury being a red flag and Carter won’t be the first name announced in April.
We had more or less reached a point where the top of the draft felt safe. However, if the Titans don’t take Carter it sends massive ripples through the top of the draft in a variety of ways.
Travis Hunter at No. 1?
The Titans need a lot of help on both sides of the ball. Carter was supposed to be a safe, reliable building block on defense with the reformation of the Titans being a slow burn. However, the injury opens up the potential for Travis Hunter moving up to the top spot — much to the chagrin of teams hoping to snag him.
Hunter is a generational talent, albeit with less positional value than Carter — hence the established pecking order. If the Titans are spooked about Carter’s injury then it’s extremely likely they take Hunter with the No. 1 pick.
This starts the dominoes falling.
The Browns have a tough choice …
It’s been accepted that Cleveland would take Miami QB Cam Ward, but if Carter is on the board it really changes that dynamic. The Browns don’t need a pass rusher, but they’re not going to pass on a talent like Carter at the No. 2 spot.
In addition, if they can take Carter it opens the possibility for a Myles Garrett trade, with Carter being his presumptive replacement. The Cleveland front office is digging its heels in saying it won’t trade Garrett despite the star pass rusher asking for a trade, but that could crumble if they’re able to able to get a pass rusher and an embarrassment of riches in draft capital to fill their other needs.
Which then lands Cam Ward in New York
The Giants have been making alternative plans at QB with the presumption they weren’t going to get Ward in the draft. Ward is their preferred top passer, and in this scenario he would now land with the team.
This could get even more bizarre if the Browns take Ward at No. 2 despite Carter being on the board. The Giants would then be in a position to try and trade back — as pass rusher is one of the few things this team really doesn’t need to spend more on after drafting Kayvon Thibodeaux and trading for Brian Burns.
For now, let’s just assume Ward goes to New York, which means …
Matthew Stafford goes to the Raiders
There seem to be two teams in hot pursuit of a Matthew Stafford trade, and the Giants taking Ward likely means the Raiders make the deal. It appears as if Las Vegas is going to follow the lead of several QB-needy teams in this draft and simply wait for better prospects in the future.
Stafford would allow the Raiders to buy that time.
So, what happens to Shedeur?
This is pretty much a nightmare scenario for Shedeur Sanders. If the Giants and Raiders fill their QB needs elsewhere then it’s tough to work out where he goes. The Jets at No. 7 need a QB, though it’s unclear if they want to take another flier on prospect (see Sam Darnold and Zach Wilson).
Then there’s the Saints at No. 9, a team Deion would surely have on his list of “worst places for my son to play.” From there you don’t have a team with a QB need until No. 18 with the Seahawks. Could the Steelers or the Rams jump up? Sure, but it would still mean seeing a precipitous fall for a QB who at one point was being touted as the No. 1 pick in the draft.
Everything hinges on the Penn State pro day
Carter is skipping physical activities in Indy and plans to work out fully for teams at his pro day on March 28. If he’s able to come out and look unaffected by the injury then this is all a storm in a teacup and we move on.
However, if he moves differently, or shows any gingerness with his foot, then the entire top of the draft could explode and the ramifications all the way down the board become wild.
