Betting odds, value picks, insight for 2024 U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2

The best players in the world have descended upon Pinehurst, North Carolina, for the 2024 U.S. Open, the most challenging tournament in golf and the third major of the year.

Both PGA Tour and LIV Golf players are eligible, although the 156-man field includes only a dozen LIV players.

Still, those who qualified are among the game’s elite, so let’s get to the odds:

U.S. Open Odds:

Here are the latest odds for the 2024 U.S. Open, courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Scottie Scheffler +300
  • Rory McIlroy +1000
  • Xander Schauffele +1200
  • Viktor Hovland +1600
  • Collin Morikawa +1600
  • Bryson DeChambeau +1600
  • Brooks Koepka +2000
  • Ludvig Åberg +2000
  • Jon Rahm +2200
  • Tommy Fleetwood +3500
  • Justin Thomas +3500
  • Cameron Smith +3500
  • Patrick Cantlay +4000
  • Tyrrell Hatton +4500
  • Max Homa +4500
  • Shane Lowry +5000
  • Matt Fitzpatrick +5000
  • Hideki Matsuyama +5000
  • Tom Kim +5500
  • Jordan Spieth +5500

Wyndham Clark on the 14th hole during the final round of the 2023 U.S. Open.
Photo by Keyur Khamar/PGA Tour via Getty Images

U.S. Open Predictions

Fresh off another win at the Memorial Tournament, Scottie Scheffler arrives at Pinehurst No. 2 as a massive favorite at 3-to-1. Many gasped at the gaudy figure of +450 for Scheffler at the PGA Championship, but now his odds are even better one month later.

He has no weaknesses in his game from tee to green, and his short game is severely underrated. Considering Pinehurst No. 2 is a ball-strikers course that also requires a deft touch around the greens, it makes sense that Scheffler has odds that low—given how good he has played this season.

Nevertheless, plenty of other prospects have arrived in the Tar Heel State hoping to make history, so here are some value picks for this week:

Cameron Smith finishes in the top 10 again

Last year, Cameron Smith finished in solo fourth at the Los Angeles Country Club, a course that suited his short game perfectly. This year, Smith will lean on his exquisite chipping and pitching abilities, as well as his world-class putter, to contend for another U.S. Open title at a course with ‘turtleback’ green complexes.

Cameron Smith, U.S. Open

Cameron Smith at the 2023 U.S. Open.
Photo by Harry How/Getty Images

Although he had a rough finish at LIV Golf Houston, going 11-over on his final six holes, Smith has proven himself on the biggest of stages before and will do so again this week.

Since winning The Open at St. Andrews in 2022, he has recorded three top-10s in majors, and his price of +320 to nab another is a solid offer.

Collin Morikawa right there; records another top 5

If not for Scheffler, Collin Morikawa may have taken home a couple of trophies already in 2024. Instead, he has six top 10s this season, five of which have come since the beginning of April.

His game is trending in the right direction, especially his ball striking, which was not up to his standard earlier in the year. Because of that, he ranks 51st on the PGA Tour in strokes gained, approaching the green this season. He ranked second to Scheffler in this metric in 2023.

This past week, Morikawa gained more than five strokes approaching the greens, good for fourth among the Memorial field—demonstrating that his iron play is coming around. Should he continue this trend, Morikawa will be there on Sunday. A top 5 finish at +350 is worth it for the two-time major champion.

Collin Morikawa, PGA Tour, the Memorial Tournament

Collin Morikawa hits a tee shot on the par-3 4th during the final round of the 2024 Memorial Tournament.
Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images

Tony Finau contends, as does Bryson DeChambeau

Another solid iron player, Tony Finau arrives in North Carolina searching for his first major title. He has come close many times before, as he has 10 career top-10 finishes in majors. But he has not recorded one since the 2021 PGA Championship.

Still, he tied for 18th at Valhalla last month and most recently finished in a tie for eighth at Muirfield Village. Finau currently ranks fourth on the PGA Tour in strokes approaching the green and 16th in proximity to the hole. You need to fire at the middle of the greens at Pinehurst, regardless of pin position, and Finau has demonstrated that ability year after year. We like him to finish in the top 10 at +450.

On the flip side, DeChambeau’s strength is not his iron play; instead, his mind and length off the tee routinely bring him toward the top of leaderboards. His game does not necessarily translate to Pinehurst No. 2 on paper, but he has played so well in majors this season that ruling him out would be foolish. Thus, although the price is low, we like DeChambeau to record another top 10 at +180.

Longshot Contenders

Si Woo Kim has had a decent season, recording 10 top-25 finishes in the 16 events that he has played. He ranks fourth on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green and 24th in strokes gained around the green, proof that he can also scramble when needed.

But his putter has let him down this season, as he ranks 162nd on tour in strokes gained: putting. Despite that, Kim’s game aligns with Pinehurst No. 2, so taking a flier on him to finish in the top 10 at +650 is worth it.

Tom Hoge, PGA Tour, the Memorial Tournament

Tom Hoge during the third round of the 2024 Memorial Tournament.
Photo by Ian Johnson/Getty Images

Two other longshot contenders we like are Tom Hoge and Dean Burmester.

Hoge ranks 3rd on the PGA Tour in strokes gained, approaching the green, trailing only Scottie Scheffler and Corey Conners, respectively. At +1100 to record a top-10 finish, Hoge is worth it. If his short game can cooperate, he has the talent to contend and surprise plenty of people.

As for Burmester, he has won three times since November and is a budding star on LIV Golf. The South African can hit the ball a country mile and posted a solid finish at the PGA Championship, tying for 12th. Do not be surprised to see his name on the leaderboard again, so Burmester recording a top 10 at +700 is a solid pick.

Avoid Betting Scottie Scheffler; return too low

If you have followed golf as of late, you know that Scottie Scheffler is on a historic heater. It would surprise nobody if he went on to win this year’s U.S. Open, but he has zero value on the market, even to win.

If Scheffler does win, you are better off looking for other players to finish in the top 5 or top 10. The World No. 1 is currently -275 to record a top 10 and -140 to post a top 5 result, preposterous figures that bettors should avoid.

Stay tuned for Playing Through’s Staff Picks for the 2024 U.S. Open, set to publish on the morning of Tuesday, Jun. 11.

Jack Milko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation’s Playing Through. Be sure to check out @_PlayingThrough for more golf coverage. You can follow him on Twitter @jack_milko as well.

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