Journalist
Posted:
- Bitcoin’s Negative Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse signaled reduced risk appetite among traders, pointing to potential decline.
- Bitcoin struggled with weak momentum, facing resistance at $98,815 and potential downside risks.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] market dynamics have taken a bearish turn as the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP), a crucial metric tracking BTC movements between spot and derivative exchanges, flipped negative.
Historically, this shift has signaled weakening risk appetite among traders, often preceding downward price action.
As investor sentiment wavers, latest data suggests Bitcoin could be entering a period of heightened volatility and potential downside pressure.
Is Bitcoin entering a bearish phase?
The IFP measures the net flow of Bitcoin between spot and derivative exchanges, providing insight into market sentiment and positioning.
A negative shift suggests traders are closing positions, deleveraging, or preparing to sell, historically aligning with periods of increased selling pressure and potential price declines in Bitcoin’s market cycle.
Historically, negative IFP readings have aligned with market corrections or prolonged bearish phases.
For example, the metric flipped negative in early 2018, coinciding with Bitcoin’s descent from its cycle peak into a year-long bear market.
Similarly, in mid-2021, the IFP turned negative ahead of a sharp decline, as traders reduced leverage and exited positions.
Source: CryptoQuant
Recent data shows the IFP has once again turned negative, raising concerns about a potential repeat of previous bearish cycles.
However, the severity of the impact varies — some negative IFP periods led to short-term corrections before Bitcoin resumed an uptrend, while others signaled prolonged downturns.
Weak momentum signals further downside
Bitcoin is struggling to gain upward momentum, trading around $97,605 at press time, with key technical indicators suggesting a cautious outlook.
The 50-day SMA at $98,815 was acting as immediate resistance, while the 200-day SMA at $80,002 remained a crucial long-term support level.
Source: TradingView
The RSI was at 46.88, hovering below the neutral 50 level, indicating weak buying pressure.
Meanwhile, the MACD remained in negative territory, with the signal line below the MACD line, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
If Bitcoin fails to reclaim the 50-day SMA, a drop toward $95,000 or lower could be in play. On the upside, a breakout above $100,000 is needed to invalidate the current bearish bias and reignite bullish momentum.
