Caleb Williams rising, Bo Nix falling in rookie QB check-in

If we’ve learned anything watching the NFL this season, it’s that playing QB at this level is really f****** hard. From the various blitz paths and simulated pressures defenses can throw at you, to the continued usage of post-snap rotation, even to the overall speed of defense now, the margin for error for NFL signal callers is razor thin, and it gets even more stressful for rookies. One game you’re playing against an Alex Grinch-led unit next thing you know Steve Spagnuolo is sending players you didn’t even know could blitz from that position.

With all that being said, this crop of rookie QBs seems to have landed in the perfect spot for each of their talents. Excluding Falcons first-round pick Michael Penix Jr and Vikings first rounder JJ McCarthy (who haven’t played this season), three of the top four QBs off the board are on teams with current winning records. However, all winning records aren’t created equal, and the play for all of them have had their highs and lows. With the midpoint of the season creeping up, I think it’s time we checked in with all the rookie QBs who have played meaningful snaps and see how they’re doing.

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

Rumors of Caleb Williams’ demise were greatly exaggerated.

After a rough start to the season where Williams and the Bears took some time to figure out what they wanted to be on offense, the Bears’ signal caller has taken off. In the last three weeks. Since week four, Williams has the second highest Success Rate in the NFL, a 9.5 Completion Percentage over Expectation (CPOE) and the Bears as an offense are fourth in EPA per play over that same time period. Granted, the teams they’ve played haven’t exactly been the 2000 Ravens but what they’ve been doing is what good offenses do: absolutely smash an outmatched opponent.

Sunday’s game against the Jaguars might’ve been the best of Williams’ young career. Williams went 23/29 and threw four touchdowns in the 35-16 demolition, showcasing some of Williams’ top-tier skills.

The Bears have asked Williams to do quite a bit pre-snap. He’s setting the protections, getting the offense into the right play based on the pre-snap look, and against the Jaguars Chicago included more tempo and Williams was working a lot pre-snap. I would argue he’s had the most on his plate when it comes to that metric, which is commendable for a first-year guy six games into his career. What really stood out on Sunday was how good Williams’ ball placement was. He was maximizing his receivers’ ability to get yards after the catch and protecting them from massive hits as well. You can tell the game has really slowed down for Williams because he’s absolutely firing passes into tight windows. One of his touchdowns to Keenan Allen was a top class throw, with accuracy that would make Son Heung-min jealous.

In the red zone, ball placement and accuracy is key. The field is shorter, which subsequently thins out the margin for error. The Bears motion WR Keenan Allen into a bunch. At the snap, Williams sees Jags LB Devin Lloyd open his body towards the bunch and CB Ronald Darby drop into the flat, meaning this is going to be Cover 2. The Bears are running a designed beater in the red zone, having Allen fake running across the field and get vertical into the end zone. Lloyd shifts his body back facing the line of scrimmage, and Allen makes his move. Williams has to throw this ball with enough pace to protect Allen, while also forcing Lloyd to either commit pass interference or not play the ball at all. Look at where Williams puts this pass, without hesitation. High, high level throw.

The red zone ball placement stood out on Sunday, but in addition to that, Williams continued to show growth within the structure of the offense. On this play, he’s got a return route and a corner to the three-man side, and a hi-lo on the backside. Against Cover 2, Williams chooses to manipulate the second level defender on the backside. He freezes this linebacker in the middle of trying to cover both WR Rome Odunze and the underneath route, and Williams fires one past him for a big gain.

Williams also added onto his big day with timely scrambles. As much man coverage as the Jaguars played, Williams exploited their gaps in pass rushing lanes by using his legs on scrambles to not only pick up first downs, but pick up explosive plays.

As good as Williams was on Sunday, he wasn’t perfect. He still holds onto the ball a bit too long, and the deep ball within structure hasn’t always been there. I still think the connection is off on those deep throws, and it came back to bite him against the Jaguars on the lone blemish, an interception to S Andre Cisco. This is a designed shot play, with only two players out in the route concept. WR DJ Moore is running a big post-corner, and the play is open. However, Williams doesn’t put enough smoke on this ball, and ends up lobbing it short, an easy pick for Cisco.

Overall, the arrow is trending up for Williams. He’s played the best football of his career recently and the Bears have been fantastic offensively. With the post-bye week schedule getting more difficult for Chicago, Williams has to continue his high level of play for this offense to stay afloat, and the Bears have to help their rookie out.

6-week grade: A-

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Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

Daniels and the Commanders have taken the NFL by storm this year, racing out to an NFC East-leading record of 4-2. Daniels is the engine behind one of the most efficient offenses in the league by EPA per play. Despite losing to the Ravens on Sunday, I actually came away more impressed with Daniels as a QB and his ability to bail the Commanders out of some rough situations.

The Ravens were able to shut off the water on a lot of what the Commanders were successful at to begin the season. Washington had a 27% Success Rate on the ground, one of their worst outputs as a team since the season began. Baltimore also shut off the water on most of Daniels’ scrambles, confining him to winning with his arm and mind. Daniels passed that test with flying colors, posting a 50% Success Rate on the day and showcasing his growth as a passer.

I say this as a compliment (please don’t hurt me, Commanders’ fans): the Washington passing offense is very simple. There’s a lot of horizontal action and flooding of the edges of the defense, asking the QB and his skill position players to maximize their talents in those areas. However, as the season has gone on, Daniels has grown in ways that his college tape didn’t show. His ball placement on the outside has always been terrific, but in the NFL it’s what’s making this offense go, especially on money downs. A couple of plays really stand out to me in this department, both routes to WR Terry McLaurin. Look at the ball placement on this throw to McLaurin, a stop route to the top of the screen. The corner is all over him, but Daniels makes it null and void by putting this ball down and away, forcing the corner to go through the DB to try and make this play. I also love the timing that he plays with, this ball is in and out of his hands quickly, a nice sign on a day where he had to hold onto the ball for a long time.

Then, a touchdown on a fade route late in the game. I mean, this is some top tier work by the rookie. He puts this ball away, where only McLaurin can get it, against Cover 0 in the red zone. As I said with Williams at the top, the red area is where ball placement really matters, and Daniels was dialed in there.

Where I was actually really encouraged by Daniels in this game was his responses to pressure. Entering the game, Daniels led the NFL in scramble attempts, and while his 42.3% First Down Rate is very good in that department, you want to see him find better answers in that area. Baltimore was able to game up Washington a few times and get a free runner, but Daniels didn’t flinch, firing passes at every area of the field. This area of growth for him is huge, because if he can beat you with his legs and his arm he becomes a much, much more dangerous quarterback. Washington is working a levels concept here with the two inside receivers to the trips side, and Daniels wants to get there as well. However, the right guard allows pressure. Daniels stands in and throws a strike to keep the chains moving. Not only that, he puts the ball out in front so his receiver had the opportunity to get some YAC.

Again, Daniels gets whacked, but he’s able to deliver this ball on a flood concept after a roll away from the concept. Really good work from the second overall pick.

Daniels can still afford to work the middle of the field more often, but I think that’ll come as the reps come. He’s been the best rookie QB this year so far, passing every test with flying colors.

6-week grade: A+

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Drake Maye, New England Patriots

It was officially Maye-day in New England, with the third overall pick making his full debut against the Houston Texans. While the 41-21 loss won’t show it, I thought Maye acquitted himself well in his first extended regular season time.

Let’s start with the obvious: Maye got absolutely CRUSHED in this game. Next Gen Stats had the Pats allowing a 47.9% Pressure Rate on Sunday, high but also on par with their performance this year. Despite being sacked four times, I thought Maye had some really nice moments against pressure. He showed off his athletic ability with some scrambles when there was a lane available and moving the chains often with his runs.

In the dropback game, I thought Maye had some highs and lows, with the highs certainly outweighing the lows. Maye threw for three touchdowns, the most impressive of those being this rainbow touchdown to Kayshon Boutte down the sideline. This is what was the most tantalizing about Maye as a prospect. The downfield capability and confidence in his arm to make every throw. Against DB Derek Stingley Jr, Maye drops this ball out of a helicopter into Boutte’s hands for a touchdown.

What I was super excited for was seeing Maye work through his progressions and try to do some big boy QB’ing. You could see Maye trying to work from his primary, to the secondary, all the way to the checkdown without bailing or risking it outside the pocket. He was willing to stand in and get hit if it meant trying to take a throw attacking downfield, an admirable (if not crazy) thing to do behind this OL. On this play, Maye is trying to work this concept to the left, a Bench concept with an out and a corner, with a backside dig and an underneath route Pop Douglas turns out after seeing Maye come back. You can see Maye’s head and body go “no, no, no, yes” as the pocket collapses. It’s not the sexiest play, but his willingness to stand and fire is something you can absolutely build on.

He even got a little saucy at times, mixing in a shoulder feint to pry an out route open against Cover 2. Boutte is running the out and TE Hunter Henry is running this out route to the bottom of the screen. Watch Maye open up to keep the cloud corner from jumping this out route, then fire in an out behind it. I’m excited about this, this is what gets the people going.

Now let’s talk about some negatives. First off, I think Maye’s ball placement was a bit up and down on Sunday. You can attribute it to first game jitters, but there were a few points where I was just confused on where the ball was going. His first interception was one like that, trying to hit Douglas on an over route. Maye just sails this one, putting it too high and too far out to make a play, and the defender has an easy pick.

You can tell Maye was thinking about that miss all game, because the same route comes open a few more times, and his passes progressively get better. The next over to Douglas was too far out, but level. The one after that was a catch, but it was behind. Finally, he hits Douglas in stride, against a blitz, and he scores. The ball placement was spotty for the duration of the game, but seeing him learn what buttons do and don’t work was really fun!

Overall, I was really impressed with Maye’s performance, mainly because the game didn’t look too fast for him processing wise. He was 8-15 for 81 yards and an INT under pressure and had answers for blitzes, whether it be with his arm or his legs. The ball placement and accuracy will improve over time, but the biggest question will be if the Pats can keep him upright long enough to prevent hits, developing scar tissue that makes QBs bail on pockets early. We will be watching your career with great interest.

6-week grade: incomplete

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Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

To say Bo Nix and the Broncos have had a rough go of it over six weeks would be an understatement. Through six weeks the only QB with a worse Success Rate is Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson, and the only QBs with a worse individual adjusted EPA/dropback is Watson, Jacoby Brissett and Will Levis. Yeah, not great company.

What’s even weirder is the fact that despite these numbers, Nix has shown some flashes (again, it’s against the Raiders and Buccaneers, but you play who you line up against). I wanted to go in and figure out why Nix was struggling so much via the Broncos loss to the Chargers, and the results paint the picture of a QB who is just trying to play too fast.

I actually think Nix’s arm is good enough to operate this offense. It’s not anywhere near the top tier guys, but for a Sean Payton offense it’s good enough. The arm hasn’t been the problem—it’s been his head and feet that have caused the issue. It feels like Nix is playing too fast, too quick to bail on pockets and too toesy to get any accuracy on passes further than 10 yards downfield. His processing is off at this point, which isn’t great for a guy trying to operate a Payton offense. Let’s talk about his first throw of the day Sunday, an interception. Nix’s head is in the right place; the Chargers are in Cover 3, and the first over route by the slot and the out route by the tight end open this window for the Dig. Nix sees it and is in the right place, but look at his feet. He looks like he’s standing on his tiptoes and is bouncy in the pocket. When you throw, you want all your cleats in the ground, because a toesy passer has too much wasted motion. Wasted time in the NFL leads to catastrophe, and this interception on the first dropback is fairly catastrophic.

Nix has also shown an inability to stand in the pocket, or use less wasteful motion to create windows for himself. As a good, but not great athlete, Nix is putting himself behind the 8-ball with all the wasted motion and inefficiency. The top tier athletes can get away with it because of how strong their arm is—Nix can’t, and because of that, he’s struggled. An area that I’ve noticed he’s been rather inconsistent is in throwing digs, especially on Dagger concepts. The window is open, but watch Nix as he’s throwing this ball. He’s fading away and wasting motion. I know the pressure is there, but he’s unable to create enough of a window to get the ball off cleanly.

The most frustrating part of it is simple: he’s hit these throws! I’ve seen him hit that dig in previous games, shoot he even did it against the Chargers later in the game! But he doesn’t make anything easy for himself with his process or his footwork, and it’s dragging his play into the mud to start the season. Look at this one, all his cleats are in the ground and even though there’s pressure he rips one for a big play late in the game. He can do it at this level, but right now he’s way too inconsistent.

It’s easy to say the game has to be slowed down for Nix, but it really does. He’s playing way too sped up and sacrificing his footwork, throwing off his mechanics. This was a problem for him in college and the problem has come with him to Denver. When he gets his cleats in the ground and is throwing quick game he can operate, but that’s not what you ask a first-round pick at QB to do. I’m concerned for Nix and the Broncos, because it’s not looking good right now.

6-week grade: D+

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Spencer Rattler, New Orleans Saints

The Rattpack has touched down in New Orleans! Spencer Rattler got his first career start for Derek Carr, who was out with an oblique injury. The results were, let’s just say, a mixed bag. Rattler went 22/40 for 243 yards with a touchdown and two picks in the Saints’ 51-27 loss, but going back into the film, it shows a QB who looked like…just about what you expect.

When Rattler was in structure and within the confines of the offense, it looked good! He was able to show off some of the functional athleticism he has, and a wicked right arm that can zip passes in on rollouts. The first play of the game was a perfect example of this. He boots outside the pocket on a designed play action, and is given a half field read. He has a curl route to his far right, a corner route and an over route coming from the tight end on his left. Rattler gets out of the pocket and throws a strike to TE Juwan Johnson on the first play.

When Rattler is working with all his cleats in the ground within the structure of the offense, he looked pretty good. This throw absolutely rocked late in the game. Rattler sees the Cover 3 safety turn his body towards the trips side, leaving the backside corner to defend Johnson by himself. Rattler looks the safety off then rifles this pass to Johnson to move the chains. You can see the arm talent when he’s working like this.

The problem for Rattler was pretty easy to see, as well: when Rattler tried to do too much he was instantly punished. He’s a good, not great athlete who got a quick reminder that the NFL is much faster than the college game. When he tried to work out of structure he was punished in this game, bailing on easy pockets or misreading concepts.

WR Mason Tipton motions out before the snap, and the Saints run a clearout to that side, the tight end running vertical and Tipton running underneath him. Rattler should throw this ball to Tipton and let him try and win after the catch. The throwing lane is open via good pass protection. However, Rattler tries to scramble, but quickly realizes that gap closes very quickly. He has to dirt it, and the ball falls incomplete.

The game was well out of hand by this throw, but I just think Rattler makes this one too hard on himself. The saints are running Mesh with a check release to the right. With the Bucs in man coverage, one of these shallow routes should be open. Rattler bails on a perfectly fine pocket, missing the shallow coming from his right, and ends up throwing this one short of the sticks and only getting 2 yards. Rattler looked like a rookie to end this game, one that was trying to do too much.

Overall, Rattler was about what you expect from a fifth-round rookie. He hit some really nice throws in structure and flashed some of the athleticism and arm that I was excited about, but also showed why he might need some more time. He’s gotta learn not to make the game too hard on himself, and continue to win within structure. We’ll see what Rattler has in store for us over the next few weeks.

6-week grade: incomplete

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