The New York Liberty (32-8) host the Atlanta Dream (15-25) in the first round of the WNBA playoffs, a best-of-three series that features two-time MVP Breanna Stewart, one-time MVP Jonquel Jones, the league’s all-time rebounder in Tina Charles, and All-Star guards Sabrina Ionescu, Rhyne Howard, and Allisha Gray.
The Liberty have the undoubtable upper hand in this series — but here’s everything you need to know ahead of the #1 vs #8 matchup:
Liberty-Dream Playoff Schedule:
Game 1 will be in New York on Sunday, September 22nd at 1pm ET (on ESPN)
Game 2 will be in New York on Tuesday, September 24th at 7:30pm ET (on ESPN)
Game 3, if necessary, will be in Atlanta on Thursday, September 26th, time TBD (on ESPN2)
Regular Season Series: New York won 3-1
Notable Players:
Liberty: Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton
Dream: Allisha Gray, Rhyne Howard, Tina Charles
Prediction: Liberty in two.
The Liberty should win this one handily. After all, New York has been the best team all season, and Breanna Stewart, a two-time MVP, is once again playing at an MVP-caliber level. After losing in the Finals last season, the Liberty came back a better team this year in nearly every respect, and have held the league’s best record for most of the year. Stewie started the year slow (by her own lofty standards), but she’s found her rhythm of late. In her last 10 games, she averaged 22.7 points on 49% shooting, including 41% from three.
Rookie Leonie Fiebich has also been an impactful addition to the rotation, emerging as a candidate for Sixth Player of the Year, and establishing herself as one of the league’s premier three-point threats. Jonquel Jones has shown flashes of her former MVP self, and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, after missing several weeks recovering from knee surgery, should be healthy and ready to impact the game as an elite two-way player.
Still, the Liberty enter the postseason after perhaps their worst stretch of basketball of the season. They dropped three of their last four home games, and nearly squandered a 20-point lead against the Wilson-less Aces two weeks ago. They ultimately concluded their season with two losses in the final three games, and suffered some uncharacteristic energy lulls in the final weeks. It’s a small sample size of struggles — and a downswing that’s unavoidable in a 40-game season — but it comes at an unfortunate time.
Atlanta, meanwhile, secured the #8 seed in the final day of the regular season, overcoming a slow start to the year and topping the Chicago Sky and Washington Mystics for the last postseason berth. The Dream have been a .500 team since the Olympics, led by Rhyne Howard (19 points per game since the break) and Tina Charles (17 points, 11.8 rebounds).
Howard is likely going to need to have a monster series in order for Atlanta to have a chance to complete what would be a major upset, as will Charles, who’s seemingly turned back the clock and has been a formidable presence in the post. (She also became the league’s all-time rebounder on Thursday). Allisha Gray, the Dream’s second-leading scorer this season with 15.6 points a night, will also have her hands full on both ends in this one.
But make no mistake — the Liberty are the heavy favorites here. For the season, they have a +11.7 net rating, while the Dream have a -3.6 net rating. They have two former MVPs, and the league’s third-best defense. Losing in the first round would be a massive upset, and the better question is whether this team has the makings of a WNBA champion — and whether they’d beat the Lynx, Aces, Sun, or any other team that might stand between them and a title.
Key Question: Is Sabrina Ionescu going to find a rhythm?
Photo by Catalina Fragoso/NBAE via Getty Images
Sabrina Ionescu, weirdly enough, is the x-factor here. The All-Star guard is shooting just 33.3% from the field since the break, and if her shot’s not falling, the Liberty look like a different ball club. Ionescu has the ability to be the best shooter in the game, and while she hasn’t been her most accurate self this season, this latest stretch is not reflective of what she is capable of.
Last year, she had a career year from three, and while her overall game has taken a step forward this season — especially her defense and her playmaking — the shot’s probably going to have to be more consistent for the Liberty to achieve the ultimate goal of a WNBA championship (though they might be able to get away with her uncharacteristic misfires against the Dream if everyone else is on target).
