PGA Championship 2024: Odds, predictions, value picks, analysis for Valhalla

This year’s PGA Championship features plenty of compelling storylines, stemming from Tiger Woods’ return to Valhalla to whether or not Michael Block can replicate his success from Oak Hill a year ago.

World number one Scottie Scheffler enters as the odds-on favorite as he eyes his second straight major victory. This year’s PGA Championship comes only days after he and his wife Meredith gave birth to their first child.

Brooks Koepka, meanwhile, hopes to win his second straight Wanamaker Trophy. Should he do so, he would become the first player to repeat at a major championship since he won the 2018 and 2019 PGA Championships at Bellerive and Bethpage Black.

Then Rory McIlroy, fresh off his dominant victory at the Wells Fargo Championship, is looking for his third straight win and continue his success at Valhalla, where his last major triumph came in 2024.

Here are the current PGA Championship odds.

PGA Championship Odds:

Here are the current odds for players to win, provided by DraftKings:

  • Scottie Scheffler +400
  • Rory McIlroy +750
  • Brooks Koepka +1200
  • Xander Schauffele +1600
  • Jon Rahm +1600
  • Ludvig Åberg +1600
  • Collin Morikawa +2200
  • Bryson DeChambeau +2200
  • Max Homa +3000
  • Viktor Hovland +3500
  • Patrick Cantlay +3500
  • Joaquin Niemann +3500
  • Cameron Smith +3500
  • Wyndham Clark +4000
  • Tommy Fleetwood +4000
  • Justin Thomas +4000
  • Cameron Young +4000
  • Hideki Matsuyama +4500

Brooks Koepka and caddie Ricky Elliot celebrate their victory on the 18th green at Oak Hill.
Photo by Keyur Khamar/PGA Tour via Getty Images

PGA Championship Predictions

Out of all four major championships, the PGA Championship employs the strongest field every year. Every one of the top players on the PGA Tour will compete this week, as will 15 players from LIV Golf.

That makes it somewhat challenging to predict, but this golf course, stretched beyond 7,600 yards, requires both distance and accuracy off the tee.

Valhalla also replaced its bentgrass fairways with Zoysiagrass three years ago, making the course play faster and firmer, diminishing the actual width of the fairways. The club also removed the rough between the fairways and the fairway bunkers, creating a style not dissimilar to that of a British Links course—where drives that find the short grass could easily roll into the sand.

As such, we like players who have precision off the tee to succeed this week.

Another close call for Xander Schauffele

After racing out to a commanding lead at Quail Hollow, Xander Schauffele lost his mojo over the weekend, settling for a second-place finish behind McIlroy.

The former San Diego State Aztec has grown accustomed to second-place finishes. He has 14 runner-up finishes in his career, two of which have come in majors. Schauffele also has recorded 12 top-10 finishes in majors since his first major in 2017, when he tied for 5th at the U.S. Open.

Xander Schauffele, PGA Tour, Wells Fargo Championship

Xander Schauffele watches Rory McIlroy’s drive during the final round of the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship.
Photo by Ben Jared/PGA Tour via Getty Images

His game has no weaknesses, except for the ability to close the deal on a major stage.

Schauffele will be there in the end, except he will not have the Wanamaker Trophy in his grasp. Instead, he will record his 13th top-10 finish in a major, which DraftKings has at +150.

LIV Golf will have two players in the top 10

It would surprise nobody if Brooks Koepka went on to win his sixth major championship this week at Valhalla. He recently won at LIV Golf Singapore, where, before the tournament, he expressed his frustrations for his poor play at Augusta National.

Koepka will arrive in Louisville with a chip on his shoulder, a dangerous sentiment for the rest of the field. His game is rounding into shape, too, thanks to his ball-striking returning to top form over the past couple of weeks. As such, we like Koepka to finish in the top-5 at +330.

Joaquin Niemann, LIV Golf

Joaquin Niemann during the 2024 LIV Golf Singapore event.
Photo by Jason Butler/Getty Images

But another LIV Golf star will finish in the top 10.

Joaquin Niemann, the 25-year-old from Santiago, Chile, will record his first top 10 in a major this week. He missed the cut at Oak Hill last year, but tied for 23rd at Southern Hills—his best finish at the PGA. But Niemann has proven himself as one of LIV Golf’s best players this season. That, coupled with his extraordinary ability to shape the ball off the tee, will have the Chilean in the top 10 at the end. DraftKings lists Niemann to finish in the top 10 at +300.

Justin Thomas contends on home turf

After a disastrous 2023 campaign, Justin Thomas has rebounded somewhat in 2024. Yes, he missed the cut at The Players and The Masters—his two biggest events to date—but Thomas has three top 10s so far this season, including a top 5 at the RBC Heritage.

After a solid first round at Quail Hollow, Thomas faded during the weekend, settling for a tie for 21st at the Wells Fargo Championship. But he ranks 11th on tour in strokes gained: tee to green.

With his re-discovered form and the hometown crowd cheering him on all week, Thomas will finish in the top 10 at +400 at Valhalla—his first top 10 finish in a major since he defeated Will Zalatoris in a playoff at Southern Hills in 2022.

Jordan Spieth falls short of Grand Slam in big way

Since tournament officials disqualified Jordan Spieth from the Genesis Invitational for signing an incorrect scorecard, his results have been poor at best.

He tied for 30th at Bay Hill, missed the cut at The Players and the Valspar, then bounced back with a top 10 at the Valero Texas Open. But the 15th hole did him in during the first round of The Masters, leading to another missed cut.

Jordan Spieth, PGA Tour, AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Jordan Spieth at the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Getty Images

Spieth also missed the cut at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and failed to come close to contention at the RBC Heritage and Wells Fargo Championship.

Poor iron play has been the primary culprit of his struggles, but Spieth has not found many fairways either. He ranks 66th in driving accuracy percentage this season, finding the short grass only 64.64% of the time. Thus, we are avoiding Spieth this week, even though a win would have him complete the Grand Slam.

Tiger Woods makes the cut

Perhaps the biggest question of the week revolves around Tiger Woods and whether the 15-time major champion can replicate his success at Valhalla in 2000.

That year, Woods triumphed over Bob May in a showdown for the ages for his third straight major title.

The course has changed since then, but Valhalla’s routing has primarily remained the same. Woods knows this golf course better than most, which will prove invaluable as the week progresses. But Woods’ ability to hit a golf ball around a major championship venue has never been a mystery—whether or not he can traverse the course itself is.

Tiger Woods, PGA Tour, 2024 PGA Championship

Tiger Woods walks around the 13th hole at Valhalla during a Monday practice round ahead of the 2024 PGA Championship.
Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Valhalla does not have the severe undulations that Augusta National has, and Woods made it through 72 holes at this year’s Masters. As such, we believe Woods will battle to make the cut once again this week, knowing that this Kentucky track does not feature the extreme slopes and hills that others do.

Big Golf Course, Big Names, Big Storylines

Dottie Pepper of CBS Sports called Valhalla a “big test” on a conference call with media last week.

Going off that motif, we believe this big golf course will separate the best from the rest and produce a dramatic leaderboard filled with big names, thus creating big storylines once again.

Scottie Scheffler will contend once again. Since he tied for fourth at the PGA Championship in 2020, Scheffler has recorded seven top-10 finishes to go along with his two Green Jackets. He is too good of a player from tee to green to not consider him, despite the life-changing moment he experienced this past weekend.

The odds reflect that, too. Scheffler is +105 to finish in the top 10 and +400 to win, a preposterously low number.

Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, The Masters

Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy at the 2024 Masters Tournament.
Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images

Since changing to his mallet putter at Bay Hill, Scheffler has rattled off four wins in five starts and has a better chance than any to win again this week.

But Rory McIlroy has an excellent shot this week, too. He has won his last two starts, even though Scheffler sat on the sidelines for both. Yet, McIlroy won at Valhalla in 2014. He hits the ball a country mile, driving it better than anyone, a recipe for success on this golf course. He ranks first on the PGA Tour in total driving, which considers both distance and accuracy.

McIlroy will show up on this big course once more, with the question not being if he will contend, but whether or not he can break through again. The best bet for McIlroy is a top-5 finish at +175 since a top-10 does not yield a significant return at -110.

PGA Championship Longshot Winner

If you have watched the PGA Tour over the past two weeks, one name has quietly lurked on the front page of the leaderboard.

Thirty-one-year-old Byeong Hun An, who has yet to win on the PGA Tour, tied for fourth at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and then finished in solo third at Quail Hollow.

Byeong Hun An, PGA Tour, Wells Fargo Championship

Byeong Hun An hits a tee shot during the final round of the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship.
Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Similar to McIlroy, An has a ton of power off the tee. He ranks fourth on tour in average driving distance and 16th in total driving. The Seoul, South Korea native is also 25th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy this season.

His short game is his weakness, an issue on any golf course. But An changed that narrative on Quail Hollow’s new greens last week. He ranked first among the field in strokes gained putting, despite ranking 91st on tour this season in that metric.

Perhaps he has discovered something with his flat stick, and if he continues to roll the rock well at Valhalla, An will contend. DraftKings currently has him at +5500 to win and +1100 to finish in the top 5. A top 10 result yields a +500 payout—any of those is worth a shot on a player who has recently caught some fire.

He also tied for 16th at Augusta National this year.

But if you are looking for who will win this week, check out who the Playing Through crew has selected in their Staff Picks.

For all other sports betting content, check out SB Nation’s DraftKings site.

Jack Milko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation’s Playing Through. Be sure to check out @_PlayingThrough for more golf coverage. You can follow him on Twitter @jack_milko as well.

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