The biggest day in American thoroughbred horse racing is here, and we are just hours from hearing My Old Kentucky Home as 151st Kentucky Derby is set for a 6:57 post time. And the rain in Louisville at Churchill Downs will be more than originally forecast, making for what could be a slower, muddier track than most of these horses have seen before.
Here’s the full expected field, with No. 4 Rodriguez and No. 10 Grande having been scratched earlier in the week.
2025 Kentucky Derby
| Post Position | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Latest Odds | Morning Line Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Post Position | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Latest Odds | Morning Line Odds |
| 1 | Citizen Bull | Bob Baffert | Martin Garcia | 13-1 | 20-1 |
| 2 | Neoequos | Saffie Joseph Jr. | Flavien Prat | 46-1 | 30-1 |
| 3 | Final Gambit | Brad Cox | Luan Machado | 15-1 | 30-1 |
| 5 | American Promise | D. Wayne Lukas | Nik Juarez | 12-1 | 30-1 |
| 6 | Admire Daytona | Yukihiro Kato | Christophe Lemaire | 40-1 | 30-1 |
| 7 | Luxor Café | Noriyuki Hori | Joao Moreira | 10-1 | 15-1 |
| 8 | Journalism | Michael McCarthy | Umberto Rispoli | 7-2 | 3-1 |
| 9 | Burnham Square | Ian Wilkes | Brian Hernandez Jr. | 16-1 | 12-1 |
| 11 | Flying Mohawk | Whit Beckman | Joe Ramos | 30-1 | 30-1 |
| 12 | East Avenue | Brendan Walsh | Manny Franco | 37-1 | 20-1 |
| 13 | Publisher | Steve Asmussen | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 29-1 | 20-1 |
| 14 | Tiztastic | Steve Asmussen | Joel Rosario | 18-1 | 20-1 |
| 15 | Render Judgment | Kenny McPeek | Julien Leparoux | 15-1 | 30-1 |
| 16 | Coal Battle | Lonnie Briley | Juan Vargas | 25-1 | 30-1 |
| 17 | Sandman | Mark Casse | Jose Ortiz | 9-2 | 6-1 |
| 18 | Sovereignty | Bill Mott | Junior Alvarado | 9-1 | 5-1 |
| 19 | Chunk of Gold | Ethan West | Jareth Loveberry | 28-1 | 30-1 |
| 20 | Owen Almighty | Brian Lynch | Javier Castellano | 40-1 | 30-1 |
| 21 | Baeza | John Shirreffs | Flavien Prat | 17-1 | 12-1 |
The big thing for the biggest race is whether you want to make Journalism a part of your winning board or not, and it’s not like there aren’t concerns. Jockey Umberto Rispoli has never navigated a 19-horse field. It’s very possible to get squeezed when you don’t want to be a part of the pace early, and the horse certainly won’t want to be leading at the 1⁄4 pole. And while he’s won all three stakes races he’s entered, all of them were against five-horse fields.
But it’s also possible he’s as close as we’ve had to a super horse in a long time. The son of Curlin and Mopotism has raced five times, and after losing his initial maiden, he’s won all four since. His victories in the Los Alamitos Futurity and San Felipe Stakes were terrific, but his dusting of the field in the Santa Anita Derby a month ago was next level. He also held off two of the other favorites in this field in Baeza and Citizen Bull.
And don’t let the one-length win in the Santa Anita fool you: He took a terrible trip in a short field, with plenty to still give while crossing first. The victory at the San Felipe was the same, as Rispoli did just enough to win, not needing the all the speed that seemed to be available. If he can find some room in the Derby’s car crash of a field, he’s the chalk for a reason.
If you’re looking to bet Journalism, FanDuel Racing is offering a strong rebate of a deal on horse racing betting through June 30th, as new customers can place their first bet up to $500 on any race at any track. If your first bet doesn’t win, you’ll get it back in Racing Bonus dollars for future wagers on horse races. The bonus dollars expire after seven days.
Sovereignty has tons of closing speed as well, and Junior Alvarado will want as slow a pace as possible, but that doesn’t seem likely in this field. But Sovereignty In his last three stakes races was no better than fifth at the 3⁄4 pole, and finished with two wins and a second that was close at the Florida Derby. Only five winners have come from the 132 horses that have started in gate No. 17 or higher at Churchill Downs, so getting a line without getting boxed in will be key for the Bill Mott trainee.
There always seems to be a fast pace in the Derby as speed horses try to get away from an overcrowded field, and Bob Baffert’s only entry in Citizen Bull is going to try to do just that this year from the rail. In three of his last four races, he was first to both the quarter pole and the finish line. And while a 107 speed figure at the Robert B. Lewis Stakes is always impressive, he just got the jump on the field and hung on to win.
But the kind of closing speed behind him that day isn’t nearly what he’ll have to do to hang on here. Derby flyers don’t happen often, but knowing that one horse is guaranteed to make the pace fast makes handicapping the massive field a bit easier. The 2024 Breeders Cup Juvenile winner’s most recent outing was that Santa Anita Derby, where he finished 10 lengths behind Journalism in fourth.
John Shirreffs Baeza was the first alternate after finishing second at the Santa Anita Derby. It took Baeza three outings to break his maiden, but his fourth career start was a second place at the Santa Anita Derby. A 107 speed figure in that race saw him finish just a head behind Journalism shows the raw talent is there in spades. He’s a fantastic horse with all the ability, and maybe the kind that will perform in front of 150,000 people and a massive field better than a smaller one.
If you need a closer that might have a good price, consider Final Gambit as a way to make a big trifecta bigger. The Jeff Ruby Stakes winner paid 32.14 for his win at Turfway Park, showing terrific pace down the stretch to edge Flying Mohawk amongst others. Another horse that doesn’t want to go from the front, he could certainly find a way into a show or better on a muddy track Saturday.
Our picks
Win: No. 8 Journalism. If he pays 3-1 or better, he’s the best horse in the field by a good distance. You’ve just got to hope for a clean trip.
Trifecta box: No. 8 Journalism, No. 18 Sovereignty, No. 21 Baeza, No. 3 Final Gambit