The tropics are heating up, and one system is expected to become either a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Beryl over the next day or two, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center
AccuWeather forecasters said the system, designated as Invest 95L, could reach hurricane status by the time it reaches the Windward Islands.
➤ Spaghetti models for Invest 95L
➤ Spaghetti models for Invest 94L
The system also “has the potential to ramp up quickly — perhaps to a major hurricane (sustained winds of 111-129 mph).”
The next named storm of the season will be Beryl.
Two other tropical waves in the Atlantic basin, including Invest 94L in the Caribbean, currently have low chances for development, according to the Hurricane Center.
Why isn’t Saharan dust preventing storms from developing?
Saharan dust, which is moving west over the Atlantic, makes it difficult for storms to develop as it steals the moist air storms need to develop.
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But Invest 95L is in the “sweet spot” as it travels west across the Atlantic.
“This feature is tracking south of a zone of dry air, dust and stiff disruptive breezes called wind shear,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
“Should the system stay in the moist zone and away from large land areas, it has the potential to ramp up quickly — perhaps to a major hurricane (sustained winds of 111-129 mph),” AccuWeather said.
Historically high ocean temperatures aren’t helping.
“This exceptional warmth may also trigger the rapid strengthening of tropical systems as the season progresses. When rapid strengthening occurs near land, it may cause dangers to lives and property to increase exponentially with little notice,” AccuWeather said.
Recent tropical activity unusual for this time of year
“Storms typically do not strengthen regularly over the main hurricane development zone until mid-August or later,” according to AccuWeather.
“The period from late June through much of July is typically quiet with only one or two named systems by mid- to late July.”
Here’s the latest update from the NHC as of 2 a.m. June 28:
Where is Invest 95L? Will it become Tropical Storm Beryl?
Invest 95L: Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form over the next day or two.
This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph toward the Windward Islands. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.
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Formation chance through 48 hours: high, 80 percent.
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Formation chance through 7 days: high, 90 percent.
Spaghetti models for Invest 95L
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Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Tropical Storm or Hurricane Beryl? Could Florida, US feel an impact?
“Depending on steering breezes, the system may push westward across Central America later next week or turn northwestward and reach the western Gulf of Mexico next weekend, where it would become a concern for the United States,” according to AccuWeather.
Forecasters recommended residents in the Caribbean, Central America and the Gulf Coast of the U.S. monitor the system closely.
Jim Cantore Invest 95L shows potential to become high end tropical storm or hurricane’
The sun is up on invest #95L as it is expected to mature even further over the next 24 to 72 hours. Much of the guidance has a high end TS or Cane by time it makes it to the Windwards by Monday which is certainly noteworthy. Given we’ve only had one hurricane in June before… pic.twitter.com/BEtlCaqxFi
— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) June 28, 2024
“Meanwhile in the tropics … Very unusual tropical wave to move across the Main Development Region (MDR) potentially unscathed and potentially becoming an issue for the Windward Islands on Monday, The Weather Channel meteorologist Jim Cantore tweeted Thursday, June 27.
Friday morning, Cantore tweeted:
“The sun is up on invest #95L as it is expected to mature even further over the next 24 to 72 hours.
“Much of the guidance has a high end TS or Cane by time it makes it to the Windwards by Monday which is certainly noteworthy. Given we’ve only had one hurricane in June before reaching the islands (1933) we don’t have a large dataset from which to work with.
“That said this is certainly unusual for this time of year. Steering is locked westward with Atlantic subtropical ridge. Consensus then has it continuing west where at this point I don’t think its fair to proceed with any confidence on track and strength past the central Caribbean into the middle of next week. NHC confidence 90% on development at this time.”
Where is Invest 94L? Will it become tropical storm?
Invest 94L: A broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea is producing widespread but disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity while it moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
Some development of this system is possible over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days
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Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 20 percent.
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Formation chance through 7 days: low, 30 percent.
Spaghetti models for Invest 94L
Can’t see the map? Open in a new browser.
Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
What else is out there and how likely is it to strengthen?
Eastern tropical wave: A tropical wave centered a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some slow development of this system is possible early next week while it moves generally westward across the central and western tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph.
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Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
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Formation chance through 7 days: low, 20 percent.
Who is likely to be impacted?
Invest 95L: Residents in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation for the next two to seven days. A gale warning has been issued beginning Saturday afternoon, according to the Hurricane Center.
Residents in the Windward Islands “may experience tropical storm conditions with squally rains, gusty thunderstorms and rough seas as early as Sunday,” according to AccuWeather.
Invest 94L: Regardless, the system will bring torrential downpours and locally gusty thunderstorms from the northwestern Caribbean to the shores of Mexico in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend, according to AccuWeather.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
What’s next?
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This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Tropical Storm Beryl could develop soon. Conditions good for hurricane
